Supreme Rifles

A case on CSGORoll (rifles), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$73.75

105 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $67.05 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.16%

1,233 openings, odds method

Variance

2.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.30%±25.39154 openings

7 days

85.41%±15.82394 openings

30 days

89.16%±8.911,233 openings

since tracking started

89.16%±8.911,233 openings

57.5%83.5%109.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	154	83.30%±25.4	−0.6σ	odds
7d	394	85.41%±15.8	−0.7σ	odds
30d	1,233	89.16%±8.91	−0.4σ	odds
All	1,233	89.16%±8.91	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,233 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$9,856 14,080 coins	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 20,000	$7,000 10,000 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$1,241 1,773 coins	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$714 1,020 coins	5.3%	6	6.2	0.97×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$263 375 coins	3.9%	9	12.3	0.73×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$207 296 coins	4.6%	19	18.5	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$197 281 coins	2.9%	13	12.3	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$186 266 coins	13.9%	65	61.7	1.05×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$186 265 coins	2.8%	12	12.3	0.97×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$174 248 coins	2.6%	10	12.3	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$167 238 coins	12.4%	74	61.7	1.20×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$142 203 coins	10.6%	63	61.7	1.02×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$113 162 coins	5.1%	26	37.0	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$111 159 coins	8.3%	58	61.7	0.94×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$94.50 135 coins	1.4%	9	12.3	0.73×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$91.70 131 coins	6.8%	61	61.7	0.99×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$81.20 116 coins	6.1%	56	61.7	0.91×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$48.87 69.82 coins	3.6%	67	61.4	1.09×
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	10.0%	$23.32 33.31 coins	3.5%	128	123.3	1.04×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$12.29 17.56 coins	0.9%	63	61.7	1.02×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	10.0%	$11.90 17 coins	1.8%	144	123.3	1.17×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$4.76 6.8 coins	0.7%	116	123.3	0.94×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$4.36 6.23 coins	1.3%	234	246.6	0.95×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$73.15105 coins$7271,039 coins9.94x3d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$73.15105 coins$7271,039 coins9.94x7d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$73.15105 coins$7271,039 coins9.94x8d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertm1chi$73.15105 coins$7271,039 coins9.94x8d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$73.75105 coins$7141,020 coins9.68x20h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$73.75105 coins$4.766.8 coins0.06x12h

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified$73.75105 coins$48.8769.82 coins0.66x12h

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$73.75105 coins$111159 coins1.51x12h

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedm1chi$73.75105 coins$11.9017 coins0.16x12h

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$73.75105 coins$4.366.23 coins0.06x12h

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified$73.75105 coins$186266 coins2.52x12h

M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$73.75105 coins$113162 coins1.54x12h

AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$73.75105 coins$23.3233.31 coins0.32x12h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$73.75105 coins$91.70131 coins1.24x12h

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertm1chi$73.75105 coins$111159 coins1.51x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$73.75	90.91%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$73.29	90.91%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$73.15	90.91%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 35.0%contraband 0.0%classified 35.0%mil spec 10.0%restricted 20.0%best hit $727 (9.94x)