gambatracker
Live
Big wins
Mines$186138.7xRed Door Roulette$1,6501.18xStake Roulette$3,0032.00xMines$186138.7xLotus Sic Bo$4,0042.00xLightning Baccarat$25.1K1.67xSalon Prive Blackjack J$100K2.00xHot Fiesta$24.46108.0xWaifu Tower$4,0141,004xPrivé Lounge 1$2,0002.00xTanked 3: First Blood 2$182453.8xImmersive Roulette$2,9705.30xSweet Rush Fiesta$1,77278.75xRack City Baddies$3,2068.02xMines$186138.7xSugar Rush Super Scatter$213632.2xCases$1,4573.56xLimbo$2,1362.00xBCGAME Blackjack Salon Privee$1,0012.00xMines$1,8696.19xLimbo$2,1362.00xBlackjack$3,7502.50xDynasty Speed Baccarat 10$1,7561.95xSweet Bonanza$1,9203.20x

Surge

A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$92.99
133 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $84.54 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.95%
305 openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
19 openings · below min
7 days
112.07%±28.79212 openings
30 days
95.95%±24.01305 openings
since tracking started
95.95%±24.01305 openings
71.5%243.0%414.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h19318.58%±95.3—odds
7d212112.07%±28.8+1.4σodds
30d30595.95%±24.0+0.4σodds
All30595.95%±24.0+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 305 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 500$2,769 3,955 coins6.5%10.6—
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 333$1,544 2,206 coins5.5%30.9—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 222$1,229 1,755 coins6.5%01.40.00×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 50$431 615 coins10.2%56.10.82×
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 100$410 586 coins4.9%33.10.98×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 11 in 87$365 521 coins5.0%63.51.71×
★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 77$331 473 coins5.1%34.00.76×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 37$224 320 coins7.2%78.20.85×
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 12$223 319 coins22.8%2226.40.83×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 31$183 262 coins7.1%59.90.50×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 20$137 195 coins8.1%1815.31.18×
★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25$127 181 coins6.0%1612.21.31×
Sticker | Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic20.0%$7.89 11.27 coins1.9%5861.00.95×
Sticker | Abalone Strafe (Holo)sticker · remarkable30.0%$5.75 8.22 coins2.0%10091.51.09×
Sticker | Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkable20.0%$5.55 7.93 coins1.3%5861.00.95×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$92.99133 coins$2,7693,955 coins29.77x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$92.99133 coins$1,5442,206 coins16.61x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$91.95131 coins$1,5092,156 coins16.41x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$91.95131 coins$1,5092,156 coins16.41x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sticker | Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic$92.99133 coins$7.8911.27 coins0.08x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$92.99133 coins$2,7693,955 coins29.77x
★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertKickerrrrrrrr$92.99133 coins$127181 coins1.36x
Sticker | Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkable$92.99133 coins$5.557.93 coins0.06x
Sticker | Abalone Strafe (Holo)sticker · remarkableKickerrrrrrrr$92.99133 coins$5.758.22 coins0.06x
★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$92.99133 coins$127181 coins1.36x
Sticker | Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkable$92.99133 coins$5.557.93 coins0.06x
Sticker | Abalone Strafe (Holo)sticker · remarkable$92.99133 coins$5.758.22 coins0.06x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$92.99133 coins$1,5442,206 coins16.61x
Sticker | Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exoticFaLLouT'z$92.99133 coins$7.8911.27 coins0.08x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$92.9990.91%15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$92.8090.91%15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$91.9590.91%15
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 20.2%legendary 1.1%extraordinary 8.6%exotic 20.0%remarkable 50.0%best hit $2,769 (29.77x)