Surrealism

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.86

6.94 coins

Advertised RTP

90.89%

EV $4.42 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.54%

4,815 openings, odds method

Variance

0.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

37.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.63%±3.47475 openings

7 days

90.84%±1.174,033 openings

30 days

90.54%±1.074,815 openings

since tracking started

90.54%±1.074,815 openings

85.5%89.8%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	475	89.63%±3.47	−0.7σ	odds
7d	4,033	90.84%±1.17	−0.1σ	odds
30d	4,815	90.54%±1.07	−0.6σ	odds
All	4,815	90.54%±1.07	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,851 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 40,000	$64.17 91.67 coins	0.0%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$48.90 69.86 coins	0.0%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 22,222	$41.38 59.11 coins	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$27.05 38.65 coins	0.2%	1	1.2	0.82×
AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 2,222	$25.92 37.03 coins	0.3%	2	2.2	0.92×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,000	$23.00 32.86 coins	0.3%	2	2.4	0.82×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$17.72 25.31 coins	0.4%	6	4.9	1.24×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$15.62 22.31 coins	0.5%	3	7.3	0.41×
Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 400	$12.93 18.47 coins	0.7%	9	12.1	0.74×
Sticker Capsule 2container · base	1 in 200	$11.30 16.14 coins	1.3%	25	24.3	1.03×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 200	$9.55 13.64 coins	1.1%	15	24.3	0.62×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 85	$7.81 11.15 coins	2.1%	162	56.8	2.85×
Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 27	$7.15 10.21 coins	6.1%	100	181.9	0.55×
XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$6.75 9.64 coins	8.8%	270	278.9	0.97×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$5.97 8.53 coins	13.5%	481	485.1	0.99×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	14.7%	$4.70 6.71 coins	15.6%	728	713.1	1.02×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	28.0%	$4.14 5.91 coins	26.2%	1,384	1358.3	1.02×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	35.0%	$2.88 4.12 coins	22.9%	1,663	1697.8	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$4.866.94 coins$6.759.64 coins1.39x11m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$4.866.94 coins$5.978.53 coins1.23x11m

AWP | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon$4.866.94 coins$4.706.71 coins0.97x11m

StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedLidl$4.866.94 coins$4.145.91 coins0.85x11m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$4.866.94 coins$2.884.12 coins0.59x14m

StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$4.866.94 coins$4.145.91 coins0.85x14m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$4.866.94 coins$2.884.12 coins0.59x14m

AWP | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommonRon Swanson$4.866.94 coins$4.706.71 coins0.97x14m

StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedReettaonläski$4.866.94 coins$4.145.91 coins0.85x1h

StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$4.866.94 coins$4.145.91 coins0.85x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC	$4.86	90.89%	18
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$4.82	90.90%	18
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$4.78	90.90%	18
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$4.70	90.97%	18
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$4.71	90.91%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4.77	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 45.3%uncommon 19.0%rare 0.0%mil spec 7.0%restricted 28.3%base 0.5%best hit —