sus
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.69
15.27 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $9.72 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.15%
5,599 openings, odds method
Variance
7.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,599 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $10.69 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $10.70 | 90.92% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.71 | 90.89% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $10.94 | 90.88% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.92 | 90.90% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 19.3%mil spec 0.5%exotic 48.7%rare 1.0%remarkable 4.5%high 10.0%common 16.0%best hit —