Sushi
A case on CSGORoll (partners), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.96
27.08 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $17.23 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
38.44%
11.5K openings, odds method
Variance
388.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 500
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.94% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (2.72% – 74.17%, 11,504 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emeraldjhjh$18.9627.08 coins$5,9788,540 coins315.4x
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epicSuperNinjaHD$19.3827.68 coins$3,4234,890 coins176.7x
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$19.3827.68 coins$1,4912,130 coins76.95x
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$19.3827.68 coins$1,4912,130 coins76.95x
Latest dropsnewest first
Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedBismillah Alrahim Alraham$18.9627.08 coins$0.610.87 coins0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $18.96 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.97 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.38 | 90.92% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 0.9%epic 0.1%restricted 66.0%common 33.0%best hit $5,978 (315.4x)