Synthwave
A case on CSGORoll (60%, gloves, 50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.92
28.45 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $18.10 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.98%
2,551 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,561 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare$19.9228.45 coins$11.1215.89 coins0.56x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rareJbeuhlélé$19.9228.45 coins$11.1215.89 coins0.56x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare$19.9228.45 coins$11.1215.89 coins0.56x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $19.92 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.65 | 90.89% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $18.57 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.57 | 90.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 14.1%rare 20.0%red 0.9%classified 40.0%#8847ff 25.0%best hit —