T-Spawn
A case on CSGORoll (10%, csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.26
36.09 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $22.96 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.72%
1,994 openings, odds method
Variance
12.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 21
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,994 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$25.6836.69 coins$641915 coins24.94x
Latest dropsnewest first
Slingshot | Phoenixagent · violetAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$25.2636.09 coins$5.798.27 coins0.23x
Street Soldier | Phoenixagent · distinguishedAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$25.2636.09 coins$10.3314.76 coins0.41x
Slingshot | Phoenixagent · violetAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$25.2636.09 coins$5.798.27 coins0.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $25.26 | 90.90% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.52 | 90.90% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.68 | 90.91% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.7%classified 2.8%extraordinary 0.1%rare 0.1%restricted 0.5%mil spec 2.8%distinguished 25.0%blue 35.0%violet 30.0%best hit $1,054 (41.02x)