Tamed

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$54.45

77.78 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $49.50 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

104.01%

122 openings, odds method

Variance

4.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

57 openings · below min

30 days

104.01%±38.12122 openings

since tracking started

104.01%±38.12122 openings

-0.5%147.8%296.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	87.72%±207.6	—	odds
7d	57	100.77%±55.6	—	odds
30d	122	104.01%±38.1	+0.7σ	odds
All	122	104.01%±38.1	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 128 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 2,000	$4,365 6,235 coins	4.4%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 20,000	$4,305 6,150 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$1,655 2,364 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$310 443 coins	18.8%	5	3.8	1.30×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$174 249 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 33	$105 150 coins	6.4%	6	3.8	1.56×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	10.8%	$91.70 131 coins	20.1%	20	13.9	1.44×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$75.60 108 coins	7.6%	9	6.4	1.41×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	10.0%	$49.33 70.47 coins	10.0%	15	12.8	1.17×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	10.0%	$48.19 68.84 coins	9.7%	10	12.8	0.78×
Nova \| Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	15.0%	$30.46 43.51 coins	9.2%	18	19.2	0.94×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Watchdog (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$20.69 29.56 coins	6.3%	16	19.2	0.83×
Souvenir USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$13.01 18.59 coins	2.6%	10	12.8	0.78×
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	18.0%	$10.81 15.44 coins	3.9%	19	23.0	0.82×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$54.4577.78 coins$20.6929.56 coins0.38x16h

★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$54.4577.78 coins$48.1968.84 coins0.89x16h

Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$54.4577.78 coins$30.4643.51 coins0.56x16h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertDab$54.4577.78 coins$91.70131 coins1.68x16h

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$54.4577.78 coins$20.6929.56 coins0.38x1d

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$54.4577.78 coins$49.3370.47 coins0.91x1d

Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedHeego$54.4577.78 coins$30.4643.51 coins0.56x1d

★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$54.4577.78 coins$75.60108 coins1.39x2d

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$54.4577.78 coins$20.6929.56 coins0.38x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$54.45	90.91%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$54.20	90.90%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$55.23	90.91%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.1%legendary 0.0%covert 28.8%extraordinary 13.1%classified 15.0%mil spec 25.0%restricted 18.0%best hit —