Tetanus

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$27.01

38.58 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $24.55 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.03%

921 openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.40%±26.69115 openings

7 days

87.56%±11.23662 openings

30 days

91.03%±9.53921 openings

since tracking started

91.03%±9.53921 openings

50.0%77.3%104.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	115	77.40%±26.7	−1.0σ	odds
7d	662	87.56%±11.2	−0.6σ	odds
30d	921	91.03%±9.53	+0.0σ	odds
All	921	91.03%±9.53	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 921 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$616 880 coins	0.5%	1	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,000	$221 315 coins	0.9%	0	0.9	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 154	$190 271 coins	5.0%	4	6.0	0.67×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 208	$132 189 coins	2.6%	7	4.4	1.58×
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 100	$130 185 coins	5.3%	6	9.2	0.65×
★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$110 157 coins	13.4%	26	27.6	0.94×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 40	$97.30 139 coins	9.9%	22	23.0	0.96×
★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$95.90 137 coins	11.7%	39	27.6	1.41×
★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$79.80 114 coins	9.8%	30	27.6	1.09×
★ Paracord Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 27	$65.64 93.77 coins	10.0%	33	34.5	0.96×
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 29	$65.25 93.21 coins	9.3%	30	32.2	0.93×
★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 25	$62.78 89.68 coins	10.2%	29	36.8	0.79×
Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	25.0%	$6.76 9.65 coins	6.9%	207	230.3	0.90×
Nova \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	25.0%	$2.59 3.7 coins	2.6%	249	230.3	1.08×
M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	25.0%	$1.81 2.59 coins	1.8%	238	230.3	1.03×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$27.2138.87 coins$640914 coins23.51x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nova | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$27.0138.58 coins$2.593.7 coins0.10x4h

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$27.0138.58 coins$6.769.65 coins0.25x4h

Nova | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialDon GZUZ$27.0138.58 coins$2.593.7 coins0.10x4h

★ Survival Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · rare$27.0138.58 coins$62.7889.68 coins2.32x4h

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$27.0138.58 coins$6.769.65 coins0.25x5h

Nova | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$27.0138.58 coins$2.593.7 coins0.10x5h

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$27.0138.58 coins$6.769.65 coins0.25x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$27.01	90.92%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$27.15	90.91%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$27.21	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 16.2%epic 1.1%rare 7.8%industrial 50.0%Uncommon 25.0%best hit $640 (23.51x)