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The Antidote

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$67.27
96.1 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $61.15 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.25%
1,578 openings, odds method
Variance
10.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
124 openings · below min
7 days
89.07%±16.441,489 openings
30 days
86.25%±15.971,578 openings
since tracking started
86.25%±15.971,578 openings
20.0%77.5%135.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h12477.43%±57.0—odds
7d1,48989.07%±16.4−0.2σodds
30d1,57886.25%±16.0−0.6σodds
All1,57886.25%±16.0−0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,578 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$1,775 2,535 coins14.5%117.91.39×
AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn)weapon · legendary1 in 125$1,528 2,183 coins20.0%1012.60.79×
★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 83$999 1,427 coins19.6%1418.90.74×
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 50$346 494 coins11.3%2731.60.86×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 20$148 211 coins12.1%9078.91.14×
★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 33$129 184 coins6.3%4747.30.99×
★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25$109 155 coins7.1%5663.10.89×
★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 12$65.35 93.35 coins9.1%121134.10.90×
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer25.0%$0.02 0.03 coins0.0%393394.51.00×
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer25.0%$0.01 0.02 coins0.0%411394.51.04×
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer25.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%398394.51.01×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$68.0597.22 coins$1,8582,655 coins27.31x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$68.0597.22 coins$1,8582,655 coins27.31x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$68.0597.22 coins$1,8582,655 coins27.31x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$68.0597.22 coins$1,8582,655 coins27.31x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$68.0597.22 coins$1,8582,655 coins27.31x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$68.0597.22 coins$1,8582,655 coins27.31x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl🟢LIVE NOW -> kick.com/budics$67.2796.1 coins$1,7752,535 coins26.38x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl🟢LIVE NOW -> kick.com/budics$67.2796.1 coins$1,7752,535 coins26.38x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$67.2796.1 coins$1,7752,535 coins26.38x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$67.2796.1 coins$1,7752,535 coins26.38x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$67.2796.1 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$67.2796.1 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$67.2796.1 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$67.2796.1 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$67.2796.1 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$67.2796.1 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$67.2796.1 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$67.2796.1 coins$65.3593.35 coins0.97x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$67.2796.1 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$67.2796.1 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC$67.2790.91%11
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$67.2790.91%11
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$67.3090.91%11
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$68.0590.91%11
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 13.7%legendary 0.8%extraordinary 10.5%consumer 75.0%best hit $1,858 (27.31x)