The Archer

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$21.87

31.24 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $19.88 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

98.56%

1,185 openings, odds method

Variance

6.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

113.08%±39.09151 openings

7 days

104.32%±16.91823 openings

30 days

98.56%±14.131,185 openings

since tracking started

98.56%±14.131,185 openings

73.5%113.3%153.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	151	113.08%±39.1	+1.1σ	odds
7d	823	104.32%±16.9	+1.6σ	odds
30d	1,185	98.56%±14.1	+1.1σ	odds
All	1,185	98.56%±14.1	+1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,185 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$1,775 2,535 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn)weapon · legendary	1 in 20,000	$1,528 2,183 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$555 793 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$318 454 coins	16.0%	19	11.8	1.60×
G3SG1 \| Chronos (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$272 388 coins	27.3%	21	23.7	0.89×
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$223 318 coins	0.6%	0	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$109 156 coins	16.5%	44	35.5	1.24×
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$24.78 35.4 coins	6.2%	61	59.3	1.03×
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$19.19 27.42 coins	6.8%	93	83.0	1.12×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$16.08 22.97 coins	5.7%	78	83.0	0.94×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	12.0%	$12.50 17.85 coins	7.5%	140	142.2	0.98×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.9%	$9.90 14.14 coins	5.4%	118	129.6	0.91×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	14.0%	$5.94 8.48 coins	4.2%	170	165.9	1.02×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	18.0%	$2.21 3.16 coins	2.0%	219	213.3	1.03×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	20.0%	$0.86 1.23 coins	0.9%	222	237.0	0.94×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$21.8731.24 coins$2.213.16 coins0.10x24m

SCAR-20 | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$21.8731.24 coins$24.7835.4 coins1.13x24m

G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New)weapon · restrictedBiO-HaZarD$21.8731.24 coins$272388 coins12.42x24m

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$21.8731.24 coins$0.861.23 coins0.04x26m

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$21.8731.24 coins$2.213.16 coins0.10x26m

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$21.8731.24 coins$0.861.23 coins0.04x26m

SG 553 | Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$21.8731.24 coins$5.948.48 coins0.27x26m

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$21.8731.24 coins$12.5017.85 coins0.57x26m

SCAR-20 | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedBiO-HaZarD$21.8731.24 coins$24.7835.4 coins1.13x26m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:08 UTC	$21.87	90.92%	15
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$21.91	90.92%	15
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$21.90	90.90%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$21.87	90.91%	15
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC	$22.74	90.91%	15
3 Nov, 09:32 UTC	$22.72	90.92%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$22.65	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%legendary 0.0%restricted 72.0%extraordinary 0.1%classified 27.9%best hit —