The Backup
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$32.28
46.11 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $29.34 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.58%
375 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 375 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $164 234 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $107 153 coins | 7.3% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.07× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $87.50 125 coins | 3.0% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.07× |
| Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 25 | $77.00 110 coins | 10.5% | 14 | 15.0 | 0.93× |
| Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 18.8% | $65.46 93.51 coins | 41.9% | 73 | 70.5 | 1.04× |
| AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $63.80 91.14 coins | 21.7% | 37 | 37.5 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $62.49 89.27 coins | 10.6% | 22 | 18.8 | 1.17× |
| P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 59.0% | $1.88 2.68 coins | 3.8% | 216 | 221.3 | 0.98× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerEl Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐$32.2846.11 coins$1.882.68 coins0.06x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$32.2846.11 coins$65.4693.51 coins2.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $32.28 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $31.88 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.98 | 90.91% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.2%extraordinary 1.0%restricted 4.0%classified 33.8%consumer 59.0%best hit —