The Beach
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$41.82
59.74 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $38.01 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.50%
141 openings, odds method
Variance
3.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 141 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $1,090 1,557 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4 | 1 in 333 | $923 1,318 coins | 7.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $286 409 coins | 11.3% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $239 342 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| MP9 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $90.30 129 coins | 11.9% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.57× |
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $88.90 127 coins | 7.0% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.65× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 15.0% | $57.69 82.41 coins | 22.8% | 21 | 21.1 | 0.99× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 19.5% | $25.70 36.72 coins | 13.2% | 29 | 27.5 | 1.05× |
| Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $13.02 18.6 coins | 8.6% | 35 | 35.3 | 0.99× |
| MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $11.58 16.54 coins | 9.1% | 43 | 42.3 | 1.02× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$42.5160.73 coins$9451,350 coins22.23x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$41.8259.74 coins$57.6982.41 coins1.38x
★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$41.8259.74 coins$57.6982.41 coins1.38x
MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specMiltsukkaaaw :3$41.8259.74 coins$11.5816.54 coins0.28x
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedDunlap$41.8259.74 coins$25.7036.72 coins0.61x
★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$41.8259.74 coins$57.6982.41 coins1.38x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $41.82 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $42.07 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $42.51 | 90.91% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 17.5%restricted 30.0%classified 22.5%mil spec 30.0%best hit $945 (22.23x)