Price
$37.34
53.34 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $33.95 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.38%
409 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
57.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 409 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 500 | $378 540 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| SSG 08 | Sea Calico (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $283 404 coins | 8.3% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.49× |
| USP-S | Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $210 300 coins | 24.7% | 14 | 16.4 | 0.86× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $83.30 119 coins | 4.9% | 12 | 8.2 | 1.47× |
| ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $68.28 97.54 coins | 20.1% | 55 | 40.9 | 1.34× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $58.98 84.26 coins | 8.7% | 19 | 20.5 | 0.93× |
| AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $52.27 74.67 coins | 30.8% | 71 | 81.8 | 0.87× |
| P90 | Teardown (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 57.8% | $0.11 0.16 coins | 0.2% | 236 | 236.4 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertBiO-HaZarD$37.3453.34 coins$52.2774.67 coins1.40x
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertRusty Cake$37.3453.34 coins$52.2774.67 coins1.40x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $37.34 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $37.63 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $37.86 | 90.91% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 1.2%classified 4.0%covert 27.0%extraordinary 10.0%mil spec 57.8%best hit —