The Chickens

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$64.40

92 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $58.54 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.19%

234 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

13 openings · below min

7 days

88.47%±18.28222 openings

30 days

86.19%±17.81234 openings

since tracking started

86.19%±17.81234 openings

-0.5%71.3%143.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	13	66.33%±76.0	—	odds
7d	222	88.47%±18.3	−0.3σ	odds
30d	234	86.19%±17.8	−0.5σ	odds
All	234	86.19%±17.8	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 240 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100,000	$9,534 13,620 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$7,521 10,745 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 50,000	$3,311 4,730 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$697 996 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33,333	$472 674 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 67	$329 470 coins	8.4%	6	3.6	1.67×
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$300 428 coins	15.4%	6	7.2	0.83×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$289 413 coins	2.5%	0	1.2	0.00×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$207 296 coins	21.0%	14	14.3	0.98×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$156 223 coins	13.3%	9	12.0	0.75×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$81.90 117 coins	11.2%	18	19.2	0.94×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	10.0%	$52.26 74.66 coins	8.9%	18	24.0	0.75×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14	$48.94 69.91 coins	5.9%	19	16.8	1.13×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$27.90 39.86 coins	3.8%	16	19.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	11.0%	$15.03 21.47 coins	2.8%	20	26.4	0.76×
MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$9.84 14.06 coins	3.4%	61	48.0	1.27×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$6.99 9.99 coins	2.4%	53	48.0	1.10×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted$64.4092 coins$6.999.99 coins0.11x6h

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$64.4092 coins$48.9469.91 coins0.76x6h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedGohan$64.4092 coins$15.0321.47 coins0.23x6h

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$64.4092 coins$48.9469.91 coins0.76x6h

AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covertGohan$64.4092 coins$207296 coins3.22x6h

SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restrictedGohan$64.4092 coins$6.999.99 coins0.11x6h

MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$64.4092 coins$9.8414.06 coins0.15x6h

Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$64.4092 coins$27.9039.86 coins0.43x6h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$64.4092 coins$15.0321.47 coins0.23x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$64.40	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$65.34	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$65.07	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 21.0%epic 0.0%exotic 1.5%restricted 43.0%classified 19.5%extraordinary 7.0%mil spec 8.0%best hit —