The chicks
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$70.17
100 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $63.79 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.69%
226 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
41.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 226 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | NEO (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · exoticViggerMcNieger$70.17100 coins$54.1677.37 coins0.77x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$70.17100 coins$98.00140 coins1.40x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $70.17 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $70.29 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $70.52 | 90.91% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 18.9%classified 16.0%extraordinary 13.7%restricted 16.3%mil spec 5.5%exotic 29.7%best hit —