The Compacter
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$200.56
287 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $182.33 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.13%
143 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 143 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertrosu$207296 coins$8491,213 coins4.10x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $201 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $207 | 90.91% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 25.5%extraordinary 23.5%classified 51.0%best hit $849 (4.10x)