The Dream
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.32
1.88 coins
Advertised RTP
90.93%
EV $1.20 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.06%
42.9K openings, odds method
Variance
3148.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 5,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
100.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $5,688 8,125 coins | 47.5% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.40× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband | 1 in 10,000 | $4,365 6,235 coins | 36.5% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× |
| AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 14.8% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 100.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 1.2% | 42,936 | 42936.1 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.32 | 90.93% | 4 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.33 | 90.87% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%contraband 0.0%consumer 100.0%best hit $5,688 (4,322x)