The Executioner
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.10
25.86 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $16.46 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.71%
4,115 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,119 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$18.4126.3 coins$8751,250 coins47.53x
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialdoubledown$18.1025.86 coins$0.170.24 coins0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $18.10 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $18.09 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.35 | 90.89% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.41 | 90.92% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 19.5%classified 0.5%industrial 80.0%best hit $875 (47.53x)