The Forge
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$86.93
124 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $79.03 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.04%
247 openings, odds method
Variance
6.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 247 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyLange$87.68125 coins$641915 coins7.30x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubyhellsten05$87.68125 coins$610871 coins6.95x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $86.93 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $87.46 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $87.68 | 90.91% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.2%covert 43.3%classified 21.5%restricted 35.0%best hit $641 (7.30x)