The Gift
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$104.34
149 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $94.86 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.82%
48 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 48 openings and 10.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$106151 coins$9441,348 coins8.94x
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Crimson Blossom (Factory New)weapon · mil specLucky Buddha$104149 coins$83.30119 coins0.80x
★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertLucky Buddha$104149 coins$61.6288.03 coins0.59x
Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil specLucky Buddha$104149 coins$39.0755.82 coins0.37x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$106151 coins$9441,348 coins8.94x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $104 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $105 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $106 | 90.91% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 41.7%extraordinary 3.5%classified 6.0%mil spec 36.8%restricted 12.0%best hit $944 (8.94x)