The Glider
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$74.24
106 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $67.49 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
124.77%
32 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 32 openings and 7.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $627 895 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 143 | $488 697 coins | 5.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $178 254 coins | 5.3% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $125 178 coins | 36.9% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.25× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $102 145 coins | 7.5% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.88× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $94.50 135 coins | 14.0% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.25× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 10.0% | $72.80 104 coins | 10.8% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 12.0% | $26.36 37.66 coins | 4.7% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.04× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 20.0% | $23.72 33.88 coins | 7.0% | 3 | 6.4 | 0.47× |
| MP9 | Airlock (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $20.05 28.65 coins | 5.9% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.78× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$75.07107 coins$27.8539.78 coins0.37x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$75.07107 coins$23.3133.3 coins0.31x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedMonkeh™$75.07107 coins$23.3133.3 coins0.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $74.24 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $74.12 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $75.07 | 90.91% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 48.0%extraordinary 12.0%classified 40.0%best hit —