The Glitch
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$32.05
45.78 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $29.13 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.82%
558 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 558 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedDab$32.0545.78 coins$28.6440.91 coins0.89x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$32.0545.78 coins$28.6440.91 coins0.89x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $32.05 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $32.04 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $31.28 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $30.96 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $30.95 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $30.88 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.88 | 90.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%mil spec 30.0%classified 40.0%restricted 20.0%industrial 10.0%best hit —