The Hammer
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.18
1.68 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $1.07 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.57%
54.8K openings, odds method
Variance
19.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.18 | 90.92% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $1.17 | 91.13% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.18 | 90.75% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.18 | 91.00% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.18 | 91.06% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $1.18 | 90.79% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $1.18 | 90.84% | 14 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.18 | 90.81% | 14 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $1.18 | 90.92% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.18 | 91.10% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 30.0%restricted 4.0%consumer 31.0%industrial 35.0%best hit —