The Juice
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.73
11.04 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $7.03 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.76%
11.6K openings, odds method
Variance
16.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $827 1,182 coins | 11.8% | 7 | 11.7 | 0.60× |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Roll Cage (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 22 | $86.10 123 coins | 55.1% | 520 | 525.1 | 0.99× |
| M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 250 | $30.04 42.91 coins | 1.7% | 47 | 46.7 | 1.01× |
| MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $7.27 10.39 coins | 10.4% | 1,136 | 1166.9 | 0.97× |
| FAMAS | Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $6.69 9.55 coins | 9.5% | 1,174 | 1166.9 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $5.33 7.62 coins | 11.4% | 1,743 | 1750.3 | 1.00× |
| P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 2,319 | 2333.8 | 0.99× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 2,440 | 2333.8 | 1.05× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,283 | 2333.8 | 0.98× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$7.7311.04 coins$5.337.62 coins0.69x
M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specSPLASSH$7.7311.04 coins$30.0442.91 coins3.89x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $7.73 | 90.92% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.73 | 90.90% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.71 | 90.93% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.75 | 90.88% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.1%covert 4.5%mil spec 0.4%restricted 25.0%consumer 60.0%best hit $855 (110.4x)