The Knight
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$65.56
93.65 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $59.60 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.59%
792 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 792 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$65.5693.65 coins$1.532.18 coins0.02x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$65.5693.65 coins$210300 coins3.20x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $65.56 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $65.84 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $66.09 | 90.91% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 36.0%covert 36.6%mil spec 18.3%Ancient 4.0%restricted 5.0%best hit $765 (11.58x)