The Launch

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$16.43

23.47 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $14.94 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.46%

2,137 openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

75.44%±27.09178 openings

7 days

89.07%±8.471,806 openings

30 days

89.46%±7.782,137 openings

since tracking started

89.46%±7.782,137 openings

47.5%75.3%103.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	178	75.44%±27.1	−1.1σ	odds
7d	1,806	89.07%±8.47	−0.4σ	odds
30d	2,137	89.46%±7.78	−0.4σ	odds
All	2,137	89.46%±7.78	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,137 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$377 539 coins	7.6%	7	6.4	1.09×
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$318 454 coins	2.1%	3	2.1	1.40×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$93.10 133 coins	3.1%	12	10.7	1.12×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$77.00 110 coins	12.9%	49	53.4	0.92×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$71.40 102 coins	4.8%	21	21.4	0.98×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$63.41 90.59 coins	17.0%	79	85.5	0.92×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$40.87 58.38 coins	21.9%	157	171.0	0.92×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.0%	$23.72 33.88 coins	19.1%	262	256.4	1.02×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	20.0%	$4.14 5.91 coins	5.5%	439	427.4	1.03×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	25.0%	$2.94 4.2 coins	4.9%	550	534.3	1.03×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	26.6%	$0.64 0.91 coins	1.1%	558	568.4	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$16.4323.47 coins$2.944.2 coins0.18x17m

Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$16.4323.47 coins$0.640.91 coins0.04x17m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$16.4323.47 coins$2.944.2 coins0.18x17m

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covertJake$16.4323.47 coins$40.8758.38 coins2.49x17m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$16.4323.47 coins$2.944.2 coins0.18x17m

StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedPOOF$16.4323.47 coins$4.145.91 coins0.25x17m

Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$16.4323.47 coins$0.640.91 coins0.04x20m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC	$16.43	90.92%	11
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$16.40	90.92%	11
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$16.41	90.91%	11
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$16.21	90.89%	11
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$16.18	90.92%	11
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$16.13	90.90%	11
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$16.16	90.92%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 12.3%restricted 47.6%covert 13.5%mil spec 26.6%best hit —