The Press
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$222.42
318 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $202.21 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
49.62%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 5.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 333 | $3,164 4,520 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 500 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 33 | $1,034 1,477 coins | 15.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $793 1,133 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 67 | $320 457 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| G3SG1 | Chronos (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $266 380 coins | 32.9% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.11× |
| MP9 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 19.5% | $262 374 coins | 25.2% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare | 1 in 20 | $155 221 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $83.30 119 coins | 6.2% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| FAMAS | Djinn (Factory New)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $33.07 47.25 coins | 4.9% | 9 | 5.4 | 1.67× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $222 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $220 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $223 | 90.91% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedhigh 0.3%covert 20.2%restricted 44.5%rare 5.0%classified 30.0%best hit —