The Pyromaniac
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.07
35.82 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $22.80 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.50%
1,703 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,703 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $25.07 | 90.92% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.42 | 90.92% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $25.52 | 90.90% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.47 | 90.91% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 52.1%covert 10.1%classified 0.8%Mil Spec Grade 15.0%mil spec 22.0%best hit —