The Ramp

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$6.93

9.9 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $6.30 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.05%

9,784 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.70%±10.55633 openings

7 days

90.30%±2.918,417 openings

30 days

90.05%±2.709,784 openings

since tracking started

90.05%±2.709,784 openings

71.5%82.7%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	633	82.70%±10.5	−1.5σ	odds
7d	8,417	90.30%±2.91	−0.4σ	odds
30d	9,784	90.05%±2.70	−0.6σ	odds
All	9,784	90.05%±2.70	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,790 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$104 149 coins	1.7%	4	9.8	0.41×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$63.41 90.59 coins	2.0%	19	19.6	0.97×
P250 \| Splash (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 111	$38.54 55.06 coins	5.5%	73	88.1	0.83×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$23.79 33.99 coins	7.6%	190	195.8	0.97×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$18.35 26.22 coins	58.3%	2,018	1958.0	1.03×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$12.42 17.75 coins	19.7%	961	979.0	0.98×
P90 \| Schematic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$4.47 6.38 coins	3.5%	471	489.5	0.96×
SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$2.65 3.78 coins	1.7%	401	391.6	1.02×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	27.8%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	2,747	2721.6	1.01×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	30.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	2,906	2937.0	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Schematic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$6.939.9 coins$4.476.38 coins0.64x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$6.939.9 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specbenny$6.939.9 coins$2.653.78 coins0.38x2m

P90 | Schematic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$6.939.9 coins$4.476.38 coins0.64x2m

MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$6.939.9 coins$18.3526.22 coins2.65x2m

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$6.939.9 coins$12.4217.75 coins1.79x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$6.939.9 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x51m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$6.939.9 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x51m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerBiO-HaZarD$6.939.9 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x51m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$6.939.9 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$6.93	90.91%	10
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$7.00	90.90%	10
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$7.00	90.89%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%restricted 0.9%classified 12.0%mil spec 29.0%consumer 57.8%best hit —