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The Reaper

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$86.75
124 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $78.87 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.90%
1,936 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
83.34%±17.38255 openings
7 days
88.56%±6.641,729 openings
30 days
88.90%±6.281,936 openings
since tracking started
88.90%±6.281,936 openings
65.5%83.5%101.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h25583.34%±17.4−0.9σodds
7d1,72988.56%±6.64−0.7σodds
30d1,93688.90%±6.28−0.6σodds
All1,93688.90%±6.28−0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,938 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 200$1,090 1,557 coins6.9%69.70.62×
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 200$1,066 1,523 coins6.8%109.71.03×
★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 200$382 545 coins2.4%139.71.34×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 33$216 308 coins8.2%5658.10.96×
M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert13.5%$188 268 coins32.1%249261.60.95×
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20$142 203 coins9.0%9496.90.97×
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert10.0%$83.30 119 coins10.6%223193.81.15×
P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert10.0%$80.50 115 coins10.2%195193.81.01×
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 20$72.80 104 coins4.6%9796.91.00×
P90 | Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 14$43.41 62.02 coins3.9%133135.70.98×
SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New)weapon · restricted10.0%$19.87 28.38 coins2.5%196193.81.01×
CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec10.0%$11.45 16.36 coins1.5%179193.80.92×
MP7 | Skulls (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec10.0%$10.23 14.61 coins1.3%204193.81.05×
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec15.0%$0.45 0.64 coins0.1%283290.70.97×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$88.01126 coins$1,1161,594 coins12.68x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$88.01126 coins$1,1161,594 coins12.68x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$88.01126 coins$1,1161,594 coins12.68x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$86.75124 coins$1,0901,557 coins12.56x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertstzy$86.75124 coins$1,0901,557 coins12.56x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$86.75124 coins$1,0901,557 coins12.56x
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$86.75124 coins$1,0661,523 coins12.29x
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$86.75124 coins$1,0661,523 coins12.29x
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$86.75124 coins$1,0661,523 coins12.29x
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertUchiha Madara$86.75124 coins$1,0661,523 coins12.29x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$86.75124 coins$72.80104 coins0.84x
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$86.75124 coins$72.80104 coins0.84x
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covertJarza$86.75124 coins$142203 coins1.64x
SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New)weapon · restrictedJarza$86.75124 coins$19.8728.38 coins0.23x
M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$86.75124 coins$188268 coins2.16x
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$86.75124 coins$72.80104 coins0.84x
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$86.75124 coins$0.450.64 coins0.01x
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covertJhon csgoroll.com$86.75124 coins$142203 coins1.64x
P90 | Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$86.75124 coins$43.4162.02 coins0.50x
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$86.75124 coins$0.450.64 coins0.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC$86.7590.91%14
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$86.7690.91%14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$87.1490.91%14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$88.0190.91%14
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 43.0%extraordinary 5.0%classified 7.0%restricted 10.0%mil spec 35.0%best hit $1,116 (12.68x)