The Recipe
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.17
14.53 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $9.25 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.12%
12.6K openings, odds method
Variance
13.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$10.1714.53 coins$4,2886,125 coins421.5x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.17 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $10.03 | 90.94% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.93 | 90.90% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%high 0.0%covert 6.3%extraordinary 2.7%classified 11.0%consumer 80.0%best hit $4,288 (421.5x)