The Rush
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$60.00
85.71 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $54.54 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.70%
10 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 10 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 200 | $356 508 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $218 312 coins | 40.0% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| PP-Bizon | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $183 261 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $102 146 coins | 28.1% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $81.90 117 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| P90 | Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $43.41 62.02 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| P90 | Death Grip (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $28.24 40.35 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $17.88 25.55 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| Tec-9 | Isaac (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.5% | $13.04 18.63 coins | 2.5% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.90× |
| Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $6.29 8.99 coins | 1.7% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× |
| StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $5.33 7.62 coins | 1.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$61.1787.39 coins$4.846.92 coins0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $60.00 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $60.63 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $61.17 | 90.91% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 45.5%covert 25.0%mil spec 21.5%classified 8.0%best hit —