The Santa
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$256.73
367 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $233.39 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.37%
131 openings, odds method
Variance
0.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
100.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.92% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.86% – 90.88%, 131 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 131 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negev | Mjölnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 10,000 | $1,397 1,996 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 2,000 | $1,100 1,571 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 667 | $811 1,159 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $532 760 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $507 724 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $426 609 coins | 5.5% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $386 551 coins | 5.0% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 345 | $289 413 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $251 359 coins | 2.2% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 90.0% | $215 307 coins | 82.9% | 124 | 117.9 | 1.05× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert$257367 coins$426609 coins1.66x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $257 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $259 | 90.91% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.4%extraordinary 2.1%covert 97.5%best hit —