The Scale
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.57
2.24 coins
Advertised RTP
90.82%
EV $1.42 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.29%
38.5K openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 500 | $19.49 27.84 coins | 2.7% | 73 | 77.0 | 0.95× |
| P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $11.26 16.08 coins | 31.6% | 1,581 | 1540.4 | 1.03× |
| Tec-9 | Toxic (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $8.48 12.11 coins | 6.0% | 388 | 385.1 | 1.01× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 18.8% | $2.99 4.27 coins | 39.5% | 7,185 | 7240.1 | 0.99× |
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $1.75 2.5 coins | 6.1% | 1,955 | 1925.6 | 1.02× |
| Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $1.53 2.18 coins | 2.1% | 738 | 770.2 | 0.96× |
| Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 19.0% | $0.84 1.2 coins | 11.2% | 7,298 | 7317.1 | 1.00× |
| Five-SeveN | Coolant (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 50.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.7% | 19,293 | 19255.5 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedCARRITOS MAISTER$1.572.24 coins$1.752.5 coins1.12x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.57 | 90.82% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.58 | 91.01% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.60 | 90.88% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedLegendary 0.2%classified 22.8%mil spec 22.0%restricted 5.0%consumer 50.0%best hit —