The Shock

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$131.17

187 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $119.25 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.95%

231 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

95.12%±19.11146 openings

30 days

88.95%±15.17231 openings

since tracking started

88.95%±15.17231 openings

-0.5%71.8%144.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	61.12%±82.3	—	odds
7d	146	95.12%±19.1	+0.4σ	odds
30d	231	88.95%±15.2	−0.3σ	odds
All	231	88.95%±15.2	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 231 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$999 1,427 coins	4.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$745 1,064 coins	15.6%	5	5.8	0.87×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$391 558 coins	9.8%	9	6.9	1.30×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 67	$346 494 coins	4.3%	3	3.5	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$306 437 coins	18.0%	17	16.2	1.05×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$239 341 coins	16.0%	19	18.5	1.03×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 50	$155 221 coins	2.6%	6	4.6	1.30×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.0%	$63.80 91.14 coins	6.4%	30	27.7	1.08×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	15.0%	$47.66 68.09 coins	6.0%	27	34.6	0.78×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	12.0%	$47.06 67.23 coins	4.7%	27	27.7	0.97×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	36.5%	$40.21 57.44 coins	12.3%	88	84.3	1.04×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryQuack69x$133190 coins$7451,064 coins5.59x2d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$133190 coins$7321,046 coins5.50x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$133190 coins$7321,046 coins5.50x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$133190 coins$7321,046 coins5.50x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$131187 coins$40.2157.44 coins0.31x1h

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertTyrone$131187 coins$40.2157.44 coins0.31x1h

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$131187 coins$40.2157.44 coins0.31x3h

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$131187 coins$40.2157.44 coins0.31x4h

Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$131187 coins$306437 coins2.33x15h

AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified$131187 coins$63.8091.14 coins0.49x16h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$131187 coins$47.0667.23 coins0.36x20h

AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified$131187 coins$63.8091.14 coins0.49x21h

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$131187 coins$40.2157.44 coins0.31x1d

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$131187 coins$239341 coins1.82x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$131	90.91%	11
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$132	90.91%	11
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$133	90.91%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 55.0%extraordinary 4.0%restricted 7.0%classified 32.0%rare 2.0%best hit $745 (5.59x)