The Swamp

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$22.59

32.27 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $20.53 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

111.78%

482 openings, odds method

Variance

3.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

53 openings · below min

7 days

115.10%±16.84436 openings

30 days

111.78%±16.03482 openings

since tracking started

111.78%±16.03482 openings

37.5%86.0%134.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.96% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (95.76% – 127.81%, 482 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	53	85.98%±47.8	—	odds
7d	436	115.10%±16.8	+2.8σ	odds
30d	482	111.78%±16.0	+2.5σ	odds
All	482	111.78%±16.0	+2.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 482 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$1,229 1,755 coins	2.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,090 1,557 coins	1.6%	1	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 3,333	$1,033 1,475 coins	1.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 67	$95.20 136 coins	7.0%	8	7.2	1.11×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 71	$81.20 116 coins	5.5%	7	6.7	1.04×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$78.40 112 coins	11.5%	19	14.5	1.31×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$43.41 62.02 coins	16.9%	36	38.6	0.93×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$24.85 35.5 coins	12.1%	55	48.2	1.14×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$23.07 32.95 coins	6.7%	27	28.9	0.93×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$17.88 25.55 coins	8.7%	51	48.2	1.06×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$14.01 20.01 coins	10.2%	71	72.3	0.98×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	15.0%	$12.05 17.21 coins	8.8%	76	72.3	1.05×
AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	10.0%	$5.89 8.41 coins	2.9%	47	48.2	0.98×
Nova \| Walnut (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	20.0%	$4.31 6.16 coins	4.2%	83	96.4	0.86×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertludopoker08$22.8132.58 coins$1,2151,735 coins53.25x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$22.8132.58 coins$1,1161,594 coins48.93x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rareBRÄTT <3$22.5932.27 coins$5.898.41 coins0.26x35m

P2000 | Woodsman (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$22.5932.27 coins$14.0120.01 coins0.62x35m

★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covertBiO-HaZarD$22.5932.27 coins$95.20136 coins4.21x35m

AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedRusty Cake$22.5932.27 coins$12.0517.21 coins0.53x35m

StatTrak™ AUG | Fleet Flock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$22.5932.27 coins$24.8535.5 coins1.10x37m

AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$22.5932.27 coins$12.0517.21 coins0.53x37m

USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$22.5932.27 coins$17.8825.55 coins0.79x37m

P2000 | Woodsman (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedRusty Cake$22.5932.27 coins$14.0120.01 coins0.62x37m

Nova | Walnut (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer3GO$22.5932.27 coins$4.316.16 coins0.19x4h

AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedVeckans$22.5932.27 coins$12.0517.21 coins0.53x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$22.59	90.91%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$22.62	90.90%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$22.81	90.91%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.6%legendary 0.0%extraordinary 1.4%classified 36.0%mil spec 6.0%restricted 25.0%rare 10.0%consumer 20.0%best hit $1,215 (53.25x)