The Tomb
A case on CSGORoll (70%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$143.41
205 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $130.37 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.14%
228 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
45.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 228 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 100 | $517 738 coins | 4.0% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.75× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 200 | $433 619 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $384 549 coins | 14.7% | 11 | 11.4 | 0.96× |
| ★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $305 436 coins | 11.7% | 8 | 11.4 | 0.70× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4 | 10.5% | $234 335 coins | 18.9% | 27 | 23.9 | 1.13× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 33.0% | $188 268 coins | 47.5% | 82 | 75.2 | 1.09× |
| Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $13.55 19.35 coins | 1.6% | 24 | 34.2 | 0.70× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 31 | 34.2 | 0.91× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 41 | 34.2 | 1.20× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 12 Nov, 08:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Factory New)gloves · legendaryCecil Tyler$143205 coins$517738 coins3.60x
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Factory New)gloves · legendaryCecil Tyler$143205 coins$517738 coins3.60x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$143205 coins$13.5519.35 coins0.09x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$143205 coins$234335 coins1.64x
Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$143205 coins$13.5519.35 coins0.09x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4Cecil Tyler$143205 coins$234335 coins1.64x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $143 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $143 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $146 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 1.0%covert 54.0%restricted 15.0%consumer 30.0%best hit $517 (3.60x)