The Transporter
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.25
13.22 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $8.41 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.24%
17.4K openings, odds method
Variance
9.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $174 249 coins | 20.7% | 167 | 173.8 | 0.96× |
| M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $113 162 coins | 13.5% | 186 | 173.8 | 1.07× |
| Desert Eagle | Pilot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $111 159 coins | 13.2% | 196 | 173.8 | 1.13× |
| M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $109 155 coins | 12.9% | 174 | 173.8 | 1.00× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $56.69 80.98 coins | 6.7% | 177 | 173.8 | 1.02× |
| Sawed-Off | First Class (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $56.07 80.1 coins | 13.3% | 331 | 347.6 | 0.95× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $52.09 74.42 coins | 12.4% | 312 | 347.6 | 0.90× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $49.95 71.36 coins | 5.9% | 181 | 173.8 | 1.04× |
| UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 90.0% | $0.12 0.17 coins | 1.3% | 15,656 | 15642.0 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialyou bastard >:($9.2513.22 coins$0.120.17 coins0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $9.25 | 90.90% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.25 | 90.90% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $9.30 | 90.93% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.52 | 90.92% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%restricted 1.0%classified 3.0%mil spec 2.0%extraordinary 1.0%industrial 90.0%best hit —