The Trap
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$56.06
80.08 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $50.96 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
113.23%
37 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 37 openings and 7.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$56.0680.08 coins$282403 coins5.03x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$56.0680.08 coins$32.7346.75 coins0.58x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $56.06 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $56.61 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $57.22 | 90.91% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%epic 0.0%covert 18.1%mil spec 13.0%classified 15.0%restricted 53.8%best hit —