The Volcano
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$100.92
144 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $91.75 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.58%
664 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
85.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 664 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $1,229 1,755 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $532 760 coins | 2.9% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× |
| AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 167 | $334 477 coins | 2.2% | 7 | 4.0 | 1.76× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $207 296 coins | 18.1% | 48 | 53.1 | 0.90× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $122 175 coins | 5.3% | 29 | 26.6 | 1.09× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $95.20 136 coins | 10.4% | 65 | 66.4 | 0.98× |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 61.6% | $81.20 116 coins | 54.5% | 424 | 409.0 | 1.04× |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $15.88 22.69 coins | 2.6% | 87 | 99.6 | 0.87× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$101144 coins$1,2151,735 coins12.03x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$101144 coins$1,2151,735 coins12.03x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertRorrin$101144 coins$1,2151,735 coins12.03x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $101 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $101 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $101 | 90.91% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 84.4%mil spec 15.6%best hit $1,215 (12.03x)