Thin Ice

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$343.08

490 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $311.89 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.30%

67 openings, odds method

Variance

0.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

97.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

67 openings · below min

30 days

67 openings · below min

since tracking started

67 openings · below min

68.0%89.0%110.0%

Small sample. 67 openings and 65.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	89.01%±20.4	—	odds
7d	67	93.30%±7.17	—	odds
30d	67	93.30%±7.17	—	odds
All	67	93.30%±7.17	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 67 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 10,000	$3,892 5,560 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$1,545 2,207 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 667	$1,325 1,893 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 345	$999 1,427 coins	0.9%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 100	$899 1,285 coins	2.9%	2	0.7	—
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$751 1,073 coins	1.2%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$429 613 coins	4.1%	2	2.0	1.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 50	$385 550 coins	2.5%	3	1.3	2.24×
Patch \| Bayonet Frogpatch · exotic	90.0%	$294 420 coins	84.8%	59	60.3	0.98×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$264 377 coins	2.5%	1	2.0	0.50×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.