Thunder
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.87
8.39 coins
Advertised RTP
90.95%
EV $5.34 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.98%
32.2K openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.95% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.11% – 90.85%, 32,207 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$5.878.39 coins$472675 coins80.45x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$5.878.39 coins$4.726.74 coins0.80x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.87 | 90.95% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.94 | 90.90% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.94 | 90.91% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%classified 4.5%extraordinary 0.0%epic 0.0%covert 1.0%exotic 4.2%rare 1.5%restricted 1.7%industrial 6.0%high 14.0%uncommon 15.0%#d32ce6 25.5%Mythical 26.5%best hit $584 (99.05x)