Tiger Case
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$31.05
44.36 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $28.23 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.23%
752 openings, odds method
Variance
4.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 788 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $937 1,339 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $784 1,120 coins | 5.6% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $617 881 coins | 4.4% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $142 203 coins | 5.0% | 8 | 7.9 | 1.02× |
| M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 11.4% | $85.40 122 coins | 34.5% | 92 | 89.8 | 1.02× |
| AUG | Bengal Tiger (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $63.09 90.13 coins | 26.8% | 92 | 94.6 | 0.97× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $57.81 82.58 coins | 4.1% | 16 | 15.8 | 1.02× |
| M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 21.0% | $10.65 15.21 coins | 7.9% | 171 | 165.5 | 1.03× |
| M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 21.0% | $3.86 5.52 coins | 2.9% | 164 | 165.5 | 0.99× |
| USP-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare | 31.0% | $2.00 2.86 coins | 2.2% | 242 | 244.3 | 0.99× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$31.5145.02 coins$622889 coins19.75x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertd0pri$31.5145.02 coins$622889 coins19.75x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$31.5145.02 coins$622889 coins19.75x
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialfast csgoroll.com$31.0544.36 coins$3.865.52 coins0.12x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $31.05 | 90.90% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $31.05 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $31.31 | 90.92% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $31.51 | 90.90% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $31.52 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.51 | 90.92% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.6%industrial 32.4%classified 12.0%mil spec 21.0%Rare 31.0%best hit $800 (25.39x)