Timemachine

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$83.03

119 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $75.49 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.22%

1,782 openings, odds method

Variance

8.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

55.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

63.79%±45.31158 openings

7 days

78.76%±15.071,432 openings

30 days

81.22%±13.511,782 openings

since tracking started

81.22%±13.511,782 openings

18.0%64.0%110.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	158	63.79%±45.3	−1.2σ	odds
7d	1,432	78.76%±15.1	−1.6σ	odds
30d	1,782	81.22%±13.5	−1.4σ	odds
All	1,782	81.22%±13.5	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,782 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 333	$3,815 5,450 coins	15.2%	2	5.3	0.37×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$2,069 2,955 coins	5.5%	3	3.6	0.84×
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$1,142 1,632 coins	7.6%	8	8.9	0.90×
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 67	$223 318 coins	4.4%	24	26.7	0.90×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$148 211 coins	5.9%	51	53.5	0.95×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$126 180 coins	8.3%	108	89.1	1.21×
Tec-9 \| Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$96.60 138 coins	19.2%	262	267.3	0.98×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	19.5%	$85.40 122 coins	22.1%	344	347.5	0.99×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	25.0%	$21.01 30.01 coins	7.0%	444	445.5	1.00×
P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	30.0%	$12.42 17.75 coins	4.9%	536	534.6	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$86.15123 coins$3,9695,670 coins46.07x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$83.03119 coins$3,8155,450 coins45.95x1d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$86.13123 coins$2,0762,965 coins24.10x4d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$86.23123 coins$2,0762,965 coins24.07x7d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covertT1NT1N$83.03119 coins$2,0692,955 coins24.91x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$86.13123 coins$1,2241,748 coins14.21x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinarystickan74$86.13123 coins$1,2241,748 coins14.21x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$86.23123 coins$1,2241,748 coins14.19x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$86.23123 coins$1,2241,748 coins14.19x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$83.03119 coins$85.40122 coins1.03x2m

AWP | Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$83.03119 coins$21.0130.01 coins0.25x27m

P2000 | Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$83.03119 coins$12.4217.75 coins0.15x31m

P2000 | Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$83.03119 coins$12.4217.75 coins0.15x32m

AWP | Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$83.03119 coins$21.0130.01 coins0.25x36m

P2000 | Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$83.03119 coins$12.4217.75 coins0.15x1h

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$83.03119 coins$85.40122 coins1.03x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:08 UTC	$83.03	90.91%	10
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$83.04	90.91%	10
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$83.13	90.91%	10
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC	$86.13	90.91%	10
3 Nov, 07:26 UTC	$86.23	90.91%	10
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$86.15	90.91%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 28.0%extraordinary 2.0%mil spec 15.0%restricted 25.0%classified 30.0%best hit $3,969 (46.07x)