Titanic
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$38.12
54.45 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $34.65 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.60%
973 openings, odds method
Variance
11.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 973 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$38.5355.04 coins$7321,046 coins19.00x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$38.5355.04 coins$7321,046 coins19.00x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$38.1254.45 coins$103147 coins2.70x
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$38.1254.45 coins$103147 coins2.70x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $38.12 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $38.12 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $38.53 | 90.91% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedhigh 0.1%classified 0.4%covert 4.9%extraordinary 0.5%legendary 0.5%remarkable 60.2%epic 0.6%industrial 0.5%mil spec 2.5%exotic 30.0%best hit $3,143 (81.58x)