Tomb Raider
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$142.20
203 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $129.28 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.88%
283 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 283 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $404 577 coins | 3.1% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| AWP | Snake Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $366 523 coins | 14.2% | 14 | 14.2 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $207 296 coins | 16.0% | 37 | 28.3 | 1.31× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $197 281 coins | 15.2% | 27 | 28.3 | 0.95× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $121 173 coins | 4.7% | 10 | 14.2 | 0.71× |
| PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · covert | 16.0% | $110 157 coins | 13.6% | 41 | 45.3 | 0.91× |
| Galil AR | Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 33.0% | $103 147 coins | 26.3% | 88 | 93.4 | 0.94× |
| M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $79.80 114 coins | 6.2% | 32 | 28.3 | 1.13× |
| MAC-10 | Curse (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $9.67 13.82 coins | 0.7% | 32 | 28.3 | 1.13× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $142 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $142 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $140 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 11.0%mil spec 5.0%covert 84.0%best hit —