TOO EZ

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$102.73

147 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $93.39 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.88%

37 openings, odds method

Variance

3.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

33 openings · below min

30 days

37 openings · below min

since tracking started

37 openings · below min

30.5%93.0%155.5%

Small sample. 37 openings and 5.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	33	92.91%±61.8	—	odds
30d	37	89.88%±58.4	—	odds
All	37	89.88%±58.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$2,426 3,465 coins	13.0%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$452 646 coins	14.5%	1	1.1	0.90×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 50	$253 362 coins	5.4%	2	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$239 341 coins	5.1%	2	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$179 256 coins	13.4%	1	2.6	0.39×
Sticker \| SIXER (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 33	$160 228 coins	5.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$109 155 coins	3.5%	2	1.1	1.80×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$84.00 120 coins	5.4%	7	2.2	3.15×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$83.30 119 coins	2.7%	1	1.1	0.90×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33	$82.60 118 coins	2.7%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 17	$63.18 90.26 coins	4.1%	1	2.2	0.45×
★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$58.07 82.95 coins	1.9%	1	1.1	0.90×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$52.24 74.63 coins	2.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	15.0%	$51.07 72.95 coins	8.2%	9	5.5	1.62×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14	$47.74 68.2 coins	3.6%	3	2.6	1.16×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	17.5%	$26.59 37.98 coins	5.0%	5	6.5	0.77×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$26.52 37.88 coins	4.3%	2	5.5	0.36×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$103147 coins$51.0772.95 coins0.50x1d

Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specZaph$103147 coins$26.5237.88 coins0.26x1d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$103147 coins$51.0772.95 coins0.50x1d

AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$103147 coins$26.5937.98 coins0.26x1d

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classifiedZaph$103147 coins$84.00120 coins0.82x1d

M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified$104148 coins$180257 coins1.74x4d

★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$104148 coins$113162 coins1.10x4d

AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$104148 coins$26.8138.3 coins0.26x4d

Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedJaws$104148 coins$452646 coins4.37x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$103	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$103	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$104	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 23.5%restricted 3.0%covert 26.0%classified 32.5%mil spec 15.0%best hit —