Toolkit
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.98
18.54 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $11.80 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.40%
1,777 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,777 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$12.9818.54 coins$7451,064 coins57.39x
★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$12.3917.7 coins$7451,064 coins60.11x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$12.9818.54 coins$41.3859.11 coins3.19x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$12.9818.54 coins$17.0924.41 coins1.32x
★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$12.9818.54 coins$41.3859.11 coins3.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $12.98 | 90.90% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $12.97 | 90.89% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $12.97 | 90.90% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $12.44 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $12.35 | 90.89% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $12.39 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.57 | 90.89% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 2.6%classified 41.3%covert 9.5%industrial 46.6%best hit $745 (57.39x)