Tormented

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.83

5.47 coins

Advertised RTP

90.87%

EV $3.48 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.90%

12K openings, odds method

Variance

5.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.33%±11.701,389 openings

7 days

90.26%±4.399,920 openings

30 days

88.90%±4.0012K openings

since tracking started

88.90%±4.0012K openings

74.0%86.3%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,389	86.33%±11.7	−0.8σ	odds
7d	9,920	90.26%±4.39	−0.3σ	odds
30d	12K	88.90%±4.00	−1.0σ	odds
All	12K	88.90%±4.00	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,000	$175 250 coins	2.5%	7	6.0	1.17×
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Cologne 2014sticker · high	1 in 1,000	$81.90 117 coins	2.4%	9	12.0	0.75×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 250	$60.72 86.75 coins	7.0%	40	48.1	0.83×
★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 333	$59.60 85.14 coins	5.1%	39	36.0	1.08×
Sticker \| Titan \| Cologne 2014sticker · high	1 in 200	$56.66 80.94 coins	8.1%	49	60.1	0.82×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$30.11 43.02 coins	8.7%	120	120.1	1.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 67	$18.43 26.33 coins	7.9%	182	180.2	1.01×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$9.53 13.62 coins	11.0%	491	480.5	1.02×
Souvenir USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$4.00 5.71 coins	9.2%	958	961.0	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$2.67 3.82 coins	1.9%	290	300.3	0.97×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	21.6%	$1.83 2.61 coins	11.4%	2,538	2600.8	0.98×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	20.0%	$1.71 2.44 coins	9.8%	2,477	2402.6	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	20.0%	$1.34 1.91 coins	7.7%	2,480	2402.6	1.03×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	20.0%	$1.27 1.82 coins	7.3%	2,333	2402.6	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedTerroristi$3.835.47 coins$1.832.61 coins0.48x3m

Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$3.835.47 coins$1.271.82 coins0.33x8m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.835.47 coins$1.832.61 coins0.48x8m

Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon$3.835.47 coins$1.341.91 coins0.35x8m

Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)weapon · MythicalVobbe$3.835.47 coins$1.271.82 coins0.33x8m

Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$3.835.47 coins$1.271.82 coins0.33x8m

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.835.47 coins$1.712.44 coins0.45x8m

Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommonEmz$3.835.47 coins$1.341.91 coins0.35x8m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.835.47 coins$1.832.61 coins0.48x10m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.87%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$3.83	90.87%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$3.85	90.91%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.86	90.87%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedmil spec 8.1%high 0.6%covert 0.7%restricted 45.1%classified 5.5%uncommon 20.0%Mythical 20.0%best hit —